The Water Institute of Southern Africa

South Africa is entering the 2026/27 summer rainfall season with an increased risk of drier and hotter conditions, raising an important question: does the country have the professional capacity to turn climate warnings into timely decisions that protect its water security?

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has identified below-normal rainfall as the most likely outcome across most of the country for October to December 2026, alongside above-normal temperatures. The Southern African Development Community’s regional outlook similarly favours below-normal rainfall across most of South Africa and much of southern Africa during the same period.

These forecasts indicate an increased risk, not a guarantee, of drought in every region. However, they reinforce the need to prepare before water shortages place additional pressure on communities, agriculture and businesses.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that can influence rainfall and temperatures across Southern Africa. Its effects are not the same in every season or place, so the forecast should be treated as an early warning to prepare, rather than a prediction that every area will experience drought.

“Climate forecasts are valuable, but their real impact depends on how effectively we use them,” says Dr Lester Goldman, CEO of the Water Institute of Southern Africa (WISA). “We need professionals who can interpret changing conditions, assess local risks and translate reliable information into decisions before a potential water crisis becomes an emergency.”

Preparedness depends on people, not predictions alone

South Africa already has tools to support more informed water-management decisions. The Department of Water and Sanitation’s National Integrated Water Information System (NIWIS) provides access to information on rainfall, dam levels and trends, and drought status, among other water-resource indicators.

Yet access to information is only one part of the equation. Seasonal forecasts must be considered alongside local rainfall patterns, catchment conditions, groundwater availability, water demand and the capacity of water systems to withstand prolonged dry conditions.

This is also taking place against a wider water-service challenge. The National Water Action Plan released by the Government in July 2026 identifies infrastructure investment, municipal service delivery and accountability among the areas requiring attention. Therefore, preparedness therefore needs to be considered alongside the everyday work of maintaining and managing water systems.

A national forecast cannot, on its own, tell every municipality, water utility or water user exactly what will happen locally. Skilled professionals are needed to interpret the available evidence, identify vulnerabilities and help decision-makers prepare for different scenarios.

“Climate resilience requires more than access to data or the existence of a contingency plan,” says Dr Goldman. “It requires people with the technical knowledge and professional judgement to assess risks, work across disciplines and help decision-makers understand what those risks mean in practice.”

The Department of Water and Sanitation’s 2023 Blue Drop assessment found that 277 of 958 assessed water supply systems were in a critical state of performance. The assessment considers factors including infrastructure, operational practices, monitoring and staff skills. These findings are not a prediction of what will happen this summer, but they underline why preparedness must consider the condition of water systems as well as the information available to those managing them.

Building resilience before a crisis

For WISA, the approaching summer highlights the importance of investing in the people responsible for managing South Africa’s water resources and services. Continuing professional development, collaboration between climate specialists and water professionals, and the effective sharing of technical knowledge all have a role to play.

Preparedness also depends on clear communication. Water professionals must be able to explain what forecasts mean, where uncertainty remains, and what practical steps different water users can take. This helps communities and institutions make informed decisions without treating a possible drought as an inevitable outcome.

WISA encourages municipalities and water utilities to review their readiness for the summer season now. This means checking available water resources and expected demand, identifying vulnerable parts of their systems, confirming who is responsible for responding to emerging risks, and ensuring that contingency plans can be put into practice. Plans should be reviewed as forecasts and local conditions change.

“South Africa cannot control the climate, but it can strengthen its ability to respond,” says Dr Goldman. “Investing in professional competence, evidence-based planning and collaboration now can help us manage water risks more effectively, both during this coming season and in the years ahead.”